Evaluation of Energy Efficiency Policy Measures for Household Air Conditioners in Australia

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Evaluation of Energy Efficiency Policy Measures for Household Air Conditioners in Australia (1.7 MB).

TECHNICAL APPENDIX to Evaluation of Energy Efficiency Policy Measures for Household Air Conditioners in Australia (1.6 MB).

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Summary

This report and Appendix were prepared by EnergyConsult Pty Ltd for the Equipment Energy Efficiency Committee (E3) under contract to DCCEE.

The main objectives of this study were to evaluate the impacts of the past regulation of air conditioners, especially on product energy efficiency and energy savings, and to determine whether the original forecasts that were made as part of the Regulatory Impact Statements (RIS) have been fulfilled following the regulation.

This study is based on the methodology used in a previous a study conducted into the effects of regulating improved energy efficiency for refrigerators and freezers in Australia (EnergyConsult 2006). The scope of this current study was on non-ducted single split systems and unitary window wall units. The methodology for this study consisted of:

Establishing the sales-weighted efficiency trends for each product category prior to the program interventions and use these to develop the baselines which forecast the efficiency of the product categories at different times;
Establishing the policy trends for the sales-weighted efficiency of air conditioners after the program interventions occurred, based on the actual sales and product efficiency;
Determining the difference between the policy trends and the baseline to measure the impact of the program; and
Comparing the forecast program impacts, predicted in the regulatory impact statements (RIS), with the actual program impacts determined using the above evaluation methods.

The results of the study show that the introduction of MEPS:

Improved product efficiency and reduced energy consumption, compared to what would have occurred without the regulations. The annual rate of improvement before MEPS was around 0.5%, but grew to around 3% after the 2004 MEPS and to around 4% after the 2006/07 MEPS.
Resulted in an estimated cumulative energy saving to 2008 of 515 GWh, which represents a cost savings of $88.9 million based on 2009 Australian average electric tariffs. In total from 2003 to 2020, the combined cumulative energy savings due to MEPS 2004 and MEPS 2006/07 was estimated to be 6,533 GWh, worth approximately $1,127 million.
Did not generally affect the price of air conditioners. However, it is possible that the 2006/07 MEPS slowed the rate of decline in air conditioner prices, but other market trends may equally have been the cause of changes in price trends over 2005-2008.
Did not affect the number of models available in the marketplace and hence did not appear to affect consumer choice.

The evaluation findings were compared to the forecast impacts made for the 2003 RIS and the 2005 RIS, with the following results:

Based on data available to 2008 the actual annual energy savings impacts are 65% above the combined forecasts of the 2003 and 2005 RIS.
The current estimate of the total actual impacts till 2020 is 195% above the projected impacts of the 2003 and 2005 RIS.

These large differences in the forecast impacts versus those found in this evaluation are primarily due to the 2003 RIS forecasts being based on a smaller forecast of sales volume than actually occurred. Actual sales of air conditioners were 108% higher from 2002 to 2008 than anticipated by the 2003 RIS. Other factors that caused differences between forecast and actual benefits of MEPS are the result of the RIS methodology used to determine the efficiency gains, changes in the product mix being sold, and the accepted need to be conservative when forecasting efficiency gains for RIS.

This page last modified 04 January 2011